The Space of Reasons 2007-06-25

The Conditional Probability Solution to the Swamping Problem (Carter)

Note: The following is a cross-post written by J. Adam Carter, from over at Virtue Epistemology.Goldman and Olsson (forthcoming) in “Reliabilism and the Value of Knowledge” offer several insightful responses to the ‘swamping problem.’ I think that the ‘conditional probability’ solution that they offer is the most interesting; evaluating this solution requires attention to some important, and sometimes unnoticed, aspects of the problem.The swamping problem has been articulated a variety of ways, and unfortunately, different versions of the problem have been referred to under the same label.Here’s a general and (hopefully) uncontroversial formulation of the problem, as presented by Goldman and Olsson:Template Swamping Argument(S1) Knowledge equals reliably produced true belief (simple reliabilism)(S2) If a given belief is true, its value will not be raised by the fact that it was reliably produced.(S3) Hence: knowledge is no more valuable than unreliably ...

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