Philosophy, et cetera 2008-08-16

Rules for Normative Risk

One proposal for dealing with uncertainty is to follow the rule that will tend (in the long run) to produce the best outcomes. For example, if you worry that shooting a gun out the window has a 1% chance of doing X damage, you shouldn't do it unless you can expect to produce at least X/100 worth of benefits by doing so.This principle accommodates normal empirical risks. But note that 'merely normative' risk is treated differently. Suppose (for simplicity) that hedonistic utilitarianism is true: what we (objectively) should do is maximize net pleasure. And what we rationally should do is maximize expected net pleasure. That means we should take into account the risks of accidental shootings, but not the 'risk' that some guilty pleasures are intrinsically bad.Consider the alternative, i.e. following a rule that would have you be indifferent between ...

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